There are two main approaches to investing in asset markets. One is to look at what are known as “the fundamentals” – for example, you might look at a company’s accounts to see how profitable it is, and to work out how much you should be willing to pay for it. You might also look at the wider backdrop – is the economy growing or weakening? What impact might that have on the sector? However, there is another popular way to invest that ignores all of this entirely – that’s “technical analysis”, often referred to as “charting”. This involves looking at price charts to forecast the likely direction of the price of an asset.
As far as hardcore technical analysts are concerned, all of the information you could possibly need to make an investment decision is already reflected in current prices. In other words, anything you can glean from “the fundamentals” has already been priced in. However, while there is always a flow of new information coming into markets, investors react to this new information in predictable ways. And because markets are cyclical, this results in recurring patterns of buyer and seller behaviour, which in turn will show up as recurring patterns on the charts. Being able to identify these patterns as they occur gives technical analysts an insight into what might happen next.
In effect, technical analysis is built on an understanding that markets are driven by human greed and fear as much as they are by things like profitability and balance sheet strength.
Subscribe to MoneyWeek
Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE
Sign up to Money Morning
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Technical analysts employ a whole range of indicators and different types of chart. The simplest approach focuses on the idea that prices tend to “trend”, moving up, down or sideways for long periods of time. So, for example, the path of least resistance for a stock that is moving up is to keep moving up. So a technical analyst might, for example, use moving averages – that is, plotting a line which takes the average of the asset price over a set number of trading days – to identify trends, and to measure how powerful they are.
Technical analysis may not sound very scientific, and like any other market approach, whether it “works” or not depends on who you ask and when you ask them. But its main purpose is to enable short-term traders to define clear entry and exit points for trades, which is something that fundamental analysis simply cannot do.
To learn more about investing methods, subscribe to MoneyWeek magazine.
-
What is an investment trust?Videos “Active” investment funds come in two main varieties, one of which is investment trusts. But what exactly is an investment trust?
-
What is a dividend yield?
Videos Learn what a dividend yield is and what it can tell investors about a company's plans to return profits to its investors.
-
High earners to pay nearly £2000 more in tax due to fiscal drag
Videos The government froze tax thresholds, which will drag employees into higher tax bands as wages rise with inflation. We explain what fiscal drag is, and how to avoid it.
-
What is a deficit?
Videos When we talk about government spending and the public finances, we often hear the word ‘deficit’ being used. But what is a deficit, and why does it matter?
-
Too embarrassed to ask: what is moral hazard?
Videos The term “moral hazard” comes from the insurance industry in the 18th century. But what does it mean today?
-
Too embarrassed to ask: what is contagion?
Videos Most of us probably know what “contagion” is in a biological sense. But it also crops up in financial markets. Here's what it means.
-
Too embarrassed to ask: what is a marginal tax rate?
Videos Your marginal tax rate is simply the tax rate you pay on each extra pound of income you earn. Here's how that works.
-
Too embarrassed to ask: what is stagflation?
Videos Traditionally, economists and central bankers worry about inflation or recession. But there is one thing worse than both: stagflation. Here's what it is
